116675-crafting-overcharge-percentage-of-failure-a-rage-post
Content ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- %ages are very misleading. Statistics are not rules, they are simply probabilities. Like was mentioned by Beclem, you have a 50% chance to flip a coin and have it land on heads, but flip it 10 times and it could be tails 10 times. More or less statistics are lies made up to make you feel better. Statistically speaking, being 23, a male, and in the US Army, I should have raped like 5 people by now or be gay. It is also a common misconception that individual events compound statistics like you are speaking. Each event is it's own statistical chance. Flip a coin 9 times and it lands on tails, that doesn't mean that the next coin flip is any less likely to be tails. In that scenario it's still 50%, regardless of how many millions of times your coin flip lands on the same thing. I played it safe with a new guild mate and only overcharged his item by 1% and it failed I think 7 times in a row. I was dumbfounded. Overcharged to 47% for shits and giggles, crafted 3 in a row. | |} ---- This is important enough to be emphasized. The previous roll has no impact on the statistical percentage of the following role. Each successive roll would have a 50% chance of being tails. The scenario in which percentages compound is say... pulling balls out of a bag. You have 10 balls, 1 red, 9 blue. You have a 1% chance of pulling the red ball first pull. Pull a blue, and you now have a 1/9 chance, 1/8, etc on down the line. Or you're playing price is right and you have to guess 3 numbers in sequence correctly. You have 0 9 8 7, Lets say the first number will never be 0, so you have a 1/3 chance of choosing the first number correctly, then a 1/3 of choosing the second number correctly, then a 1/2 chance of choosing the third number correctly. So there is a 0.33*0.33*0.5=5.5% chance of having all the numbers correct, because each successive guess is affected by the previous. | |} ---- I do know that each chance is it's own percentage. Let's take the coin example. On each toss of a coin, there is a 50% chance of heads and a 50% chance of tails. But to calculate the probability of getting heads mutliple times in a row, you multiply that 50% chance. So the probability - before ever flipping the coin - of getting heads twice in a row is 0.5 x 0.5, which is .25 (25%). On each flip there is a 50% chance, but you can calculate the probability of successive events using that independent 50% chance. So in my example of failing on a 15% chance 5x in a row, the probability of that happening is 0.15^5, which is .00008 (rounded to the nearest 100-thousandth). Or .008%, which is approximately a 1 in 13,000 chance as I originally said. This has happened to me so much, it's more than just RNG bad luck. I craft A LOT, and I have since beta. Weaponsmith, Tailor, Outfitter, Armorer and Architect (architect crafting obviously doesn't apply here). I just got really annoyed today when I wasted 5x hybrid power cores and 10x infused bones (about 50g at going prices) on a 15% chance of failure. I highly doubt that I got a 1 in 13,000 event in this instance. I think it's far more likely that the 15% chance of failure was wrong. I'll play around with some crafting percentages and log the results so I have hard data to report. My experience from months of crafting is that the percentage indicator is highly unreliable and is not showing a true figure. | |} ---- You have a weird definition of crafting a lot. You can hardly reject the null hypothesis at any significant confidence level with a sample size of five. Anecdotally, I've found that whenever I play it safe with low percentages I am just disappointed. Even if I do manage to get one with great slots, my base item is neutered because I didn't take a risk with the overcharge. And the failures were super annoying, because I was trying to minimize them. But if you change your view, from minimizing failures to maximizing results, and accept that its a numbers game and the only way to win is to throw hundreds of attempts at the system, failures stop mattering. So now I try to craft at least 100 at a time with as high an overcharge as I can go, and I am better off for it. | |} ---- I craft hundred of items per day at expert and expert research level. I overcharge everything. 15% is actually a conservative overcharge for me. I have made hundreds of platinum at the AH with my crafted gear so I know I'm doing something players like with my gear. I was simply using the 5 attempts at a 15% chance of failure to illustrate my point. | |} ---- It's just a %. It's possible to fail 100 attempts at 1% failure rate. | |} ---- Yes, and to calculate the likelihood of that happening you would take .01^100. So a VERY unlikely event. Possible? Yes. Likely? No. If that were to happen, I would immediately question whether the 1% chance of failure was correct, which is what I'm doing with WS's crafting percentages. | |} ---- ---- The fact that leaves will fall in autumn is a very high probability event. Pretty guaranteed absent a catastrophic environmental event. Correctly choosing the exact spot a particular leaf will land is a separate consideration, and getting that correct is highly unlikely. | |} ---- That's what the various statistical tests are for. If someone is crafting hundreds of items each day, he should have an easy time rejecting the null hypothesis. But if his best example is five unlikely failures in a row then he has his work cut out for him. | |} ---- I've had this happen a lot. 4-6 failures in a row on something with a predicted sub 30% chance of failure. I've taken statistics courses and worked in finance for 10 years, so I'm not a math dummy with regards to probability. I'm fairly certain that something is wrong. I'm actually surprised that anyone who crafts a lot doesn't agree with me. Start paying attention to how many failures you get at various percentages -- I really do expect that you'll start to notice something fishy. I can use Virag's to queue up a bunch of stuff and log the actual failure rate vs. the stated percentage of failure. I don't like the idea of wasting my mats like this, and personally I would prefer Carbine to weigh on on whether or not there is a known issue with the crafting system. | |} ---- ---- ---- I'll update here again once I have more hard data. I'm starting a spreadsheet logging the stated percentage of failure, # of crafting attempts, and actual rate of failure. I'll be sure to post my results whether it supports my original statement or not. I'll also keep track of the level of difficulty of the item I'm crafting and whether it has a random bonus. My impression is that the percentage of failure becomes less reliable as the item crafted becomes more complex. | |} ---- Feel free to read up: http://www.mathsisfun.com/data/probability-events-independent.html | |} ---- ---- I realize that I should have brought more hard data with my post. All I'm trying to do is identify whether or not something is wrong with the crafting percentage of failure. I'm surprised so many crafters don't agree, and that's making me question whether I'm correct. It's certainly possible that I'm a statistical outlier, or I'm looking for patterns where none exist (like dinwitt said). Or maybe I'm just flat out wrong. I'm going to build the spreadsheet so that I have a large sample of actual results. Again, my impression is that the percentage of failure becomes less reliable as the crafted item becomes more complex. If actual crafting data supports this, then it should be flagged to Carbine to investigate and possibly include in some future fix. WS is my favorite MMO to date (and I've played many in the past 15 years), but I think we can all agree that many systems in the game haven't worked as intended and there have been many bugs which need to be sorted. It wouldn't surprise me at all if this turns out to be another. | |} ---- ---- ---- Sorry about that, I cleaned up the formatting and pasted it as plain text. I'll link the spreadsheet as it gets bigger, but right now it's in Google docs and has my name all over it so I'm hesitant to put it on the forums. | |} ---- ---- Have you tried mismatching circuits vs matching them? | |} ---- This seems this is what is going on. Though I am not being rude when I say it is good that you have taken an interest to see if the percentage is off or not. Though being a long time MMO player. I've found out when messing with percentage, it isn't a fun thing. Using another example, An item has a 1 out of 200 kills to drop, player A could farm out 1,000 and still not get it while player B could get it on his 10th kill. Really can go a long way to theory out if it will succeeded or not, but in reality all you are doing is holding your breath and holding for the best outcome. | |} ----